Life & Leadership

Future of Employment - Top 5 Trends for the future

           I am writing my blog after a long time. Have several excuses handy - work, play, golf, travel etc - but I will stay with the simple - good old laziness. Having overcome that, here we go ...

In my view the current economic crisis will have the same impact on the Long Term world view of management & Corporate Leadership as 9/11 had on the world view around terrorism. Lots will change the way the world will look at leaders, however, I believe that one of the more subtle but equally powerful impact of this will be on The Future Trends of Employment.

Oh, by the way, I just love the simple (almost simplistic format of 5 Top Trends ...) - just makes the piece about writing on such things so delightfully simple & so much un-imaginative. Anyway, I will talk about imagination & creativity some other day.

 Trend #1 -  Sexy hot jobs become uncool  - Sexy jobs which seemed to have a quick success turbo charge bolted onto them will be seen with caution & some suspicion. The old fashioned  question - " Is this job stable ?" is likely to be popped very frequently. In the short term this trend will get lots of traction.

Trend #2 - Risk Takers rejoice  - Almost as a paradox, employers will seek people who can take risks. In the debris of the meltdown will lie many businesses aching to reach their old  glory. Leaders will pay a premium to those who have flourished (or even survived the downturn), taken risks balanced with Prudence. This breed is going to be in hot demand, if you are one of these, I envy you :) 

Trend #3 - Freelancers & Off -Roll -ers galore -  There is an increasing disillusionment with the corporate world's see saw turn of fortunes. The new generation Gen M (born in the '80s) is likely to see this as a stimulus for increasing their freedom & reducing dpendance on formal jobs. They may actually get lot of support (even role models) from the older employees who may be exiting employment & taking up roles in the informal employment sector.

Trend #4 - People NO LONGER expendable -  In my view this is the most counter intuitive trend that is likely to happen with a set of Organizations who are likely to pioneer this trend. So let me try & explain this - This time round every organization & his brother has laid off people. This has been even more painful because of the globally the whole situation was quite horrible. The "war for Talent" will resume in a few quarters & this time battle scarred employees & introspective Employers will evaluate each other. There will be a few (damn few, mind you) who have managed to keep lay offs minimal or at least have taken this opportunity to retain good talent. 

As the full impact of this crisis pan out, many organizations may find their startegic ability to attract top talent severely constrained by the way they had wielded the axe. Short point, in a couple of years, the practice of laying off people in economic situations may be seen as a bad practice.

Trend # 5 - Trust, Inspiration & Authenticity - will be traits both employees & employers will seek in each other. In fact, this is, likely to be a key Leadership differentiator going forward alongwith my two evergree favorites - Strategic agility & Adaptability.

Organization Redesign - The Perfect Storm is here

For a variety of unrelated reasons, this seems a great time to do an Organization Redesign and take a relook at the Structure of your Organization. 4 key trends that are causing this unique situation are :

The global Economic Downturn - this is the "Elephant in the room" issue that is having every organization re-evaluate its strategy & more pertinent, its Overhead expenses. The reasons are clear, but placed together, they are a heady cocktail.
1.The credit squeeze has increased cost of doing business for viable firms & the less viable ones are simply getting bankrupt.
2. Consumer spending / confidence is very low. Demand for products & services has tanked.
3. Inflation in commodities has shrunk Profit Margins, especially in the Manufacturing sector
All this means that men in dark suits & grim faces are prowling with sharp scissors, looking for savings.

The recent era of New Managers - The last five years, since 2003 have seen fairly sharp growth globally - a lot of it being driven by expansion, consolidation (read Mergers & Acquisitions) and growth in emerging markets, all this with the famous War for Talent. During this phase, a lot of new managers have taken up roles with relatively smaller spans of control. This has led to some structural inefficiency that is eating into preciously small margins & making the business respond slower to changes.

Organizational Response to Managing Complexity - Strategic Choices by companies have led to significant complexity. (Read the McKinsey Quarterly article http://tinyurl.com/42r9ey on this). The other BIG factors that have increased complexity is Technology interfacing with Business & Talent in ways not seen before. In fact Web 2.0 itself is probably going make significant disruptive changes in the way we manage People & Organizations (Read the Fastforward Blog on web 2.0- http://tinyurl.com/4splzx )

Growth focussed last 5 years - Most Organizations either execute well in the present or adapt for the future. Very few do both well. As organizations are getting a wee little breather from the scorching growth of the past few years; this is a good time to reflect on the synergy between the Organization Strategy & Design.
(Read Eric Beinhocker's book Extract - The Adaptable Corporation - http://tinyurl.com/3zket5 that talks about this)

So what does all this mean ?

In my view, simply that there are a whole host of reasons that will compel the Organization's architects & leaders to review the design. Its one of the more painful & clearly un-glamorous aspects of Organization Strategy. However, those who take this opportunity to review & perhaps tweak their Org Designs will be more nimble when the upturn starts. As an optimist, I will put my neck out & place a small bet that the economic situation will improve by Quarter 3 of 2009 -
Till then,
Happy Tinkering !!!