The current slowdown, recession, meltdown or whatever else you call it, is getting into its main act as it begins to play out in Main Street, especially in India & China. And contrary to prevailing media opinion, we have barely seen the first act of the 3-act play out of this.
Act 2 likely to see a severe implosion of the real estate sector - driven by falling demand, consumer mistrust of intrinsic value & distress selling by people who have "invested" in realty & are now seeing pink slips. Credit may ease out due to government intervention, but this time the issue is about intrinsic demand.
At the risk of sounding like a doomsday Cassandra, I foresee corporate employment will fall & the job market will shrink. At worst, it could even lead to social uprisings.
Apart from Structural Economic reasons, there is another logic why India is likely to see a lot of over reactions - the current & older generation of leaders in India have never seen a slowdown that is so sustained & across all industries.
Summary - Doom & Gloom, consumer demand plummets, job losses, credit squeeze, realty implosion ...
Phew ... Now that I have given so much doom, lets talk about Act 3, thats when recovery begins.
Act 3 - Asia is lagging in the impact its seeing of the global crisis & while its still reeling under its impact there will be PE / Hedge funds & other FIs who will see the crisis blowing over in US & Europe. The early birds will swoop down for picking the bargain deals & suddenly the crisis will boom about just as suddenly into another boom. So whats the dark lining of this silver cloud?
Most of us will be so shell shocked & gun-shy by now that we will see the recovery with cynicism & disbelief. My guess is that we should see the upturn by end Q2 of 2009 or early Q3.
Till then, keep sanity close by & prepare for the peak of the crisis.
Good Luck
Recent Comments